Future of Boating & GW

BobP

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It has already been proven even in advanced societies like ours, greed, avarice, jeolousy, self interest, etc, if not placed under controls by our government, will end in disaster. People and their businesses can't be trusted to act on their own for the good of their neighbors and society, in a responsible way. It's every man and women for themselves.

Examples of this everday in the papers, look at the Enron/Anderson few that destroyed the lives of thousands and thousands of employees and investers, to benefit themselves. Did you forget so soon? And what's teh solution for this?

Speaking of fuel economy, why is there such a thing as CAFE?

If your government didn't regulate electric service to your home, you would be paying what you should for electric, many times more and way more than what you pay now for cable TV.
People complain about high electric rates, but they don't say squat about their higher cable TV bills, just images on a glass screen. Ask the Californians what happened when electric power companies were deregulated, and the few that profitted off their the sweat off their backs to pay the escalated bills.

So goes the same for your water bill, would be the same as your health care bill, out of control, if left unregulated.

Tell me greed and avarice on the part of lenders didn't create in part the mortgage default disaster.
Where do I recall seeing this: "NO CREDIT, BAD CREDIT, NO PROBLEM"

There is way too little expectations by you on our government, of the most powerfull country in the world, to do much of anything. We can invade countries and see tens of thousands die in the war including our own, yet powerless to do anything about fuel? How can that be? How gullible are you? I have a bridge to sell you, interested?

Good luck with the "why can't we all just can't get along" approach.

The government failed to produce an energy plan for the USA, plain and simple. That's how gas can double in a few years without a forecast it could happen, and not a thought or response plan about what to do about it.

Has Chrysler filled for bankruptsy yet, if they do, we will bail them out just like last time, the tax payers bailed them out, with the sweat off our backs that earned it to pay taxes.

And don't talk ethanol, not enough acerage in the USA to grow that much corn, presuming we need farms for food to eat too. Or maybe you believe a solar panel on the hardtop or roof of the car is the solution.
 

KingJ

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I hope this link works for you all. It's a San Diego company, I believe.

http://www.valcent.net/i/misc/Vertigro/index.html

This features a new USA fuel sorce/ alternative that I certainly hadn't heard about yet.

Pay particular attention to what the guy says at the very end.....

As Americans, we have the brains -hence-technology for sustainable, locally produced fuel alternatives. The economic incentives for sensible and just alternatives may finally be here. I hope.

Think decentralization or localization and suppert your local farmers market.

All the best for the 4th o' July Holiday!
 

jehines3

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BobP said:
If your government didn't regulate electric service to your home, you would be paying what you should for electric, many times more and way more than what you pay now for cable TV.
People complain about high electric rates, but they don't say squat about their higher cable TV bills, just images on a glass screen. Ask the Californians what happened when electric power companies were deregulated, and the few that profitted off their the sweat off their backs to pay the escalated bills.

Bob, NY is deregulated as is most of the East coast. As for cable markets, I don't see many people with a $100 cable bill switching back to rabbit ears, so supply and demand principals apply. People are willing to pay for "luxury" items, we just hate being squeezed for neccesities, like gas to get to work. But running my boat at 1 mpg is a must on an 85 degree sunny weekend, so where to I concede.

The same people that complain about $4 gas are buying Starbucks mocha lattes for $24.00/gallon. Heck even a $1.50 16oz cup of regular joe is $12.00/gallon, people line up for is all day long smiling.

Here is a wild one:
Why does milk cost more than gas. Totally domestic product, fewer taxes to consumer, fewer taxes to producer, No exploration cost, far less processing, same transport costs. Because we need it, we will buy it at the price on the shelf.
 

capeguy

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John,
Interesting points you make about luxury items and others like coffee and milk. Not to get to far off base, but milk is perishable, comes from relatively distributed sources, requires lots of transport and has limited shelf life... hence the price. It also competes with other uses such as ice cream etc... But you are right, much more per gallon.

My original point was that oil prices will hit boating from many fronts, not just the price of fuel at the dock. Oil is a major component in the materials and in the production of those materials. Oil is a major component in the distribution of these heavy products. Oil is a major component of the vehicles we use to move them around. Oil is a major factor is our daily lives that impacts values of homes (distance to jobs) and our disposable incomes. All of those things will impact boat ownership in a negative way...

Will GW be better positioned, I think so as they serve a relatively affluent customer base. But will some customers walk away or trade down, maybe.. Will more used boats come on the market, yes... Does higher used boat inventory impact new sales, yes... Will prices on new boats rise, yes... Will some people opt against the SUV in order to save fuel on commuting and therefore not be able to tow the boat, yes...

All this points to a major contraction in the industry. Milk, coffee and other things are not nearly as instrumental to the economy and to boating.

Look at GM and Ford, cratering in the wake of rising oil. How do boat companies survive with far less financial strength and R&D capital???

Not trying to be doom and gloom, but I am wondering about this as a business man.
 

RUMBLEFISH

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And if we all listen to the news or read the paper or comb the net like I do myself its always bad news. You would think that these BIG news orgnizations would maybe once show some company doing well in the US. Its like they enjoy keeping good news from the public or maybe trying to spread fear of a dreaded colapse for the election year.
 

HOOPER

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I hope Grady weathers this storm well, but I fear they will be hit hard. Why, the best selling Grady is still the 208. Take away the middle-class due to rising fuel, food and utilities and Grady loses their best seller. That has to be an economic blow to any company.

I was hoping to upgrade to a 208 or 226 in a couple years but at this rate it doesn't look likely.

Maybe I'm just a dumb greasy bus mechanic, but without the disposable income of the middle class, things will change drastically. The majority of this country is not made up of millionaires, so a sharp rise in commodities will put the brakes on all luxury items, not just boats.

Sure, someone will always be able to afford a 360 no matter how bad things get, but is there enough of a profit margin on them to keep Grady afloat? Unfortunately only time will tell.
 

Brad1

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KingJ said:
I hope this link works for you all. It's a San Diego company, I believe.

http://www.valcent.net/i/misc/Vertigro/index.html

This features a new USA fuel sorce/ alternative that I certainly hadn't heard about yet.

Pay particular attention to what the guy says at the very end.....

As Americans, we have the brains -hence-technology for sustainable, locally produced fuel alternatives. The economic incentives for sensible and just alternatives may finally be here. I hope.

Think decentralization or localization and suppert your local farmers market.

All the best for the 4th o' July Holiday!

I believe this is the 2nd company I have heard of that is making (or attempting to make) fuel using algae.

The innovation that we'll likely be witnessing should result in some interesting investment opportunities.
 

Capt Bill

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RUMBLEFISH said:
And if we all listen to the news or read the paper or comb the net like I do myself its always bad news. You would think that these BIG news orgnizations would maybe once show some company doing well in the US. Its like they enjoy keeping good news from the public or maybe trying to spread fear of a dreaded colapse for the election year.

You are correct; good news doesn't seem worthy of reporting, based on what they blast us with every day. But a lot of people don't seem to think that things are all gloom and doom.

My wife and I just celebrated our 40th wedding anniversary last week, so I got the idea to book a cruise. Haven't been on one in 5 years. So, 2 weeks before the date :roll: , I started checking with travel agencies, for a cruise out of Baltimore to Bermuda. Couldn't do it. It was fully booked; not one cabin available from any agency OR directly from NCL. They referred me to try the ship Norwegian Dawn, which sails from New York. Didn't really want to go to NY, but, hey, ... it was our 40th, and I had to come up with something. :wink:

Found that a rear balcony suite was available, so I booked it, and a limo to get us to and from NY. When this ship, with a capacity of 2224 passengers left port, it too, was fully booked; evey stateroom sold out. The guy that was in the suite next to us said he does this 4 times a year! OK. He was a doctor; but it seems like a lot of people still have a lot of disposable income for these cruises to be selling out.

In Bermuda, gas was $8.07/imp gal, and there were big boats as well as smaller ones, running offshore every day we were there. Figure that.
 

CJBROWN

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Definitely a variety of comments here, interesting for sure, guess it's a all a matter of perspective. I've been lurking since the beginning, have had time to do some thinking about it.

Gas prices don't bother me too much, except for motorhome travel. Since its value is in the toilet I bought a new Scion for a toad for it, may as well get some use out of it. We'll travel a couple of hundred miles instead of several hundred. And the new car gets about 25mpg around town so we drive it instead of the Duramax. I imagine its value is in the toilet too.

Using the boat for fishing and harbor cruising out here really doesn't make much difference. I used to put a hundred bucks in and that was good for a month, now it's $150 and it doesn't go as far, but we really don't notice that much difference. I know it would if my boat used 25 gallons an hour. So moving to twin gas V8's in a sportfisher would seem pretty foolhardy these days. I'm not sure that it would be such a big deal though for a couple'a F225's on a bigger Grady at 15-16gph. We still may make that move.

The house has lost a quarter of it's value, but it's still worth way more than double what it was when we bought it 15 years ago. So even though we pulled a couple of hundred grand out of it we still have quite a bit of equity. I'll just have to increase the payment a little to build equity for retirement, then either refinance or sell it. Either way, by then we'll come out fine.

Over the last 30 years we've sure seen a lot of ups and downs, but I'd have to agree these are some odd circumstances. I also think supply will build and demand will wane somewhat for gas, so I would not be surprised to see it come back down into the $3's. By then everyone will have replaced their SUV's with something that gets better mileage. A family with a couple of kids doesn't need a truck-based vehicle that gets poor mileage. That was a dumb move on everyone's part over the last ten years. Families with lots of kids, or that have a trailer or boat, will still use those rigs, they'll just budget more for fuel for them.

I guess it all depends on how much fuel you buy every month. We probably averaged about $350 before, so a 25% increase really doesn't impact our budget that much. So now we'd spend $450, but we drive that RV less so it's really about the same. And not driving the truck pays half the payment on the new economy car. Fortunately, both wife and I are less than 10 miles from work, mine is half that, so it's not a problem. I do feel sorry for people with long commutes. They are the ones getting killed. And people that financed up to, or bought a home at the peak - they are also getting squeezed.

As far as Grady is concerned, they'll just scale back and ride it out. They'll produce product that people ask for. But yeah, I think it's going to impact values on existing boats, and not in a good way. And I don't think alternate fuel sources is anywhere near on the horizon, I think you're talking decades away. It takes horsepower to move a planing hull boat, that's not going to change unless people accept going slow and go back to displacement hulls.

A brief review of yacht design in the 20's and 30's will reveal one possibility for water craft. Francis Herershoff drew some delightful craft in the 30's that were pleasing to the eye and required low horsepower to drive the hulls. I imagine we'll see a resurgence of interest in those types of craft.

I don't think its all gloom and doom either, I see the situation as more of a correction, or an influence of change. I too am sick of the news media, I'm starting to ignore it more and more, or at least simply take it with a grain of salt. I just can't get too caught up in the scare tactics. Our government just loves that - keep the people scared and you can get them to do almost anything. They're still all a bunch of crooks, that has never changed. The public is demanding more accountability though, that's for sure.

I had to quit funding my 401K late last year to make ends meet, but things have improved and we need to get back going on it. But it has lost enough value that anythng I would have contributed to it in the last year would have just been lost, so I don't feel so bad about that either. I think things will bounce back within 1-3 years. Things will stabilize, not be so volitile, and real estate will grow at a slow steady pace instead of shooting up on a bubble.
 

capeguy

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I'm beggining to think that gas prices are not the biggest problem facing the industry today. Seems most people in this thread and in the board will simply adjust usage, speed, etc. to reduce fuel consumption. I also agree with those who see the incremental spend as not that big a deal. My usage on my 180 doesn't burn huge amounts, so its really not that big a deal.

Perhaps the biggest threat from the oil prices is not gas prices directly for boaters, but the inflationary effect it has on everything else, coupled with the falling dollar and falling home values. All of that make new boats harder to afford.

Clearly each individual will be impacted differently, some not at all, but collectively it could be very troubling.

I am betting this fall we will see a huge increase in used boats on the market in the NE as the reality of heating our houses sets in...
 

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interesting points of view from people, like me, who value boating above many other pursuits. I guess the good news for us is fewer bozos on the water; bad news, boats aren't worth as much and companies who sold them are facing tough times.
Chris, I gotta say, don't skip on that 401k. even if the "snapshot" value went down over the past couple of years (and everyone's has) the real loss on your part is not continuing to purchase shares of whatever funds you have while prices are LOW - overall value; down -- number of shares owned -- continues to climb. and the new shares are cheaper than the old. when the economy inevitably recovers, ALL of those shares will increase in value. keep pumping that money in - you don't need it until you retire, so it doesn't really matter what its worth between now and then on any given day or year. but you will appreciate your pateince and perserverance when you bought lots of shares low and can sell them high later!
 
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I don't think Grady really has anything to worry about. Boating and/or boats in general are luxury items. Anyone who can walk into a Grady dealer and take a 305 is not really worried about the cost to run. IMHO.
 

jehines3

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nwboater said:
interesting points of view from people, like me, who value boating above many other pursuits. I guess the good news for us is fewer bozos on the water; bad news, boats aren't worth as much and companies who sold them are facing tough times.
Chris, I gotta say, don't skip on that 401k. even if the "snapshot" value went down over the past couple of years (and everyone's has) the real loss on your part is not continuing to purchase shares of whatever funds you have while prices are LOW - overall value; down -- number of shares owned -- continues to climb. and the new shares are cheaper than the old. when the economy inevitably recovers, ALL of those shares will increase in value. keep pumping that money in - you don't need it until you retire, so it doesn't really matter what its worth between now and then on any given day or year. but you will appreciate your pateince and perserverance when you bought lots of shares low and can sell them high later!

Well said. You can't justify skimping on your own retirement funding to send your hard earned money to the Middle East. Your furtures are very important and the govt and social secuity is on the brink of failure. My boat sits at the dock allot more this year and I vowed to not do any fishing as it is terribly wasteful when I can buy fish all day long at the market. I also promised myself to increase my retirement contribution another 10% as I have every year. I scrimped and did 5%. I just cruised the boat to my YC (14 miles away from home port) for a 4 day vacation with the family. It cost me 32 gallons in fuel RT, but the slip was free. I will make time/money to spend with my family. The days of the $50/rockfish are going to take a season off for my and my kids futures. Be fiscally responsible for the furture too, I hope we are all around to boat when times get better. jh
 

Grog

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I can't justfy the cost of owning a boat if you don't use it. Long trips (fising or whatever) are with buddies that will share the cost, short ones aren't that bad. Seeing the look on my daughters face is worth the price for me. With the elevated costs I can't sock away the same money and as long as it doesn't get too much worse I'll still do what I'm doing. If I have too, I'll keep it on a trailer in a yard and lauch it when I use it until that becomes too big of a pain, then the boat's gone. We only have ONE ticket on this ride, you have to enjoy life but not to the point of sacraficing your future.
 

jehines3

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Grog, I hear ya. The season is half over and I'm not missing anything. I'm doing a 54 mile sailboat race tonight. My daughters are still both very young (7 months and other is 2 years) and we have cruised more this year than ever doing beach runs and such. The 40-70 gallon fishing days are on hold which is why my dockage time is higher.

As for the boat costs, they are not even a factor. The boat is mine free and clear. I enjoy working on the boat as much as anything else. I've done many projects this season with great expense that easily could have been set aside for fuel. My dockage is a mere $800 for the season incl electric and water. I trailer store for winter which only costs about $250 at the yard.

My seasonal costs are just not what drove me to this. I do not want to be sending a signal to the Middle East that I will support $140/bbl oil with no scaling back. This economy needs right now for people to conserve and to get the price of oil lower. My using the boat for extra trips drive some poor persons heating oil costs up.

I'm in the energy business everything consumers do affects this market. Speculators are winning right now, but with better conservation we can make it so people can afford to heat their homes this winter. Not that it matters if the next round of stimulus goes through congress we all will be paying for the poor to heat their homes this winter anyway.

To get back on track, I hope GW stays the course. I'm sure someone in a better situation is buying my future 360 express right now. jh
 

timmons

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the future of boating

I agree with the poster who stated it's not specifically the gas prices we have to worry about, but the overall effect energy prices have on just about every aspect of the economy. I go though my anti - Democrat/Republican/big business/government tirade as does everyone else. But we have only ourselves to blame. No drilling, no new refineries, no nukes, no coal, no nothing. In our area you can't even put up wind turbines. Some local lady, who's son has ADD, actually claimed it would bother her son's condition. Our schools dedicate weeks to global warming but our kids don't know what oil shale is. We've fought everything, then wondered why energy prices have gone up. Duh. Then we wonder why our politicians take us for fools. Well folks, we are. Time to either produce some energy or turn in the keys to our Land Rovers, and our Gradys.

Chaumont, NY